Countries must urgently address rapidly ageing populations to prevent severe economic strain in the coming decades, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in its annual report released on Tuesday. The bank warned that shrinking working-age populations are already weakening economic performance, with emerging Europe projected to lose nearly 0.4 percentage points of annual per capita GDP growth between 2024 and 2050.
According to EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik, several post-communist nations are “getting old before getting rich,” as median ages rise while income levels lag far behind those of advanced economies at similar stages of demographic change. The report highlighted limited success from government incentives to boost birth rates, political resistance to large-scale migration, and widespread hesitation toward adopting AI to raise productivity. The organisation stressed that the most effective solution will be encouraging people to work longer, supported by pension reforms and retraining programmes.
The EBRD also cautioned that ageing populations are mirrored by ageing political leadership, which often favours protecting pensions and restricting migration, making reforms harder to implement. While some newer member nations such as Nigeria still benefit from young and expanding populations, Javorcik warned that this demographic advantage may be short-lived due to declining birth rates across Africa. She urged these countries to rapidly expand private-sector job opportunities to fully capture the narrow window of demographic dividend before it fades.
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