Leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez holds a narrow lead over incumbent President Daniel Noboa ahead of Ecuador’s April 13 runoff election, according to two recent polls. A Negocios & Estrategias survey conducted between March 24 and March 26 found Gonzalez with 51.4% of voting intention, compared to Noboa’s 48.6%, with a margin of error of 1.8%. A second poll by Pedro Cango, conducted between March 25 and March 30, showed Gonzalez at 51.9% and Noboa at 48.1%, with a 1.5% margin of error. Both results indicate a tight race, leaving room for shifts before election day.
Noboa, 37, assumed the presidency in November 2023 after winning a special election to complete the term of his predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, who dissolved Congress to avoid impeachment. In February’s first-round vote, Noboa edged out Gonzalez by less than 1%, securing victory by just 17,000 votes. Gonzalez, a close ally of former President Rafael Correa, is now seeking to reclaim the presidency for the leftist movement he once led.
With both candidates locked in a technical tie, analysts say the final days of campaigning will be crucial. “Every little bit counts, and it wouldn’t be surprising if we get to election day with a quite narrow gap,” said Ivan Sierra, director of Negocios & Estrategias. The country’s National Electoral Council (CNE) has authorized the polls, and with tensions high, voters await the final showdown in what is shaping up to be one of Ecuador’s closest presidential races.
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