U.S. Growth to Improve in 2026, but Hiring to Stay Weak: NABE Survey

U.S. economic growth is expected to pick up slightly next year even as job gains remain subdued, according to the National Association for Business Economics’ year-end forecast survey. The poll of 42 professional forecasters, conducted from November 3–11, projects 2% GDP growth in 2026—up from 1.8% expected in October and significantly higher than the 1.3% outlook in June. Economists said stronger consumer spending and business investment will support this expansion, though new import tariffs under the Trump administration are expected to trim growth by at least a quarter of a percentage point.

The survey identified tariff impacts as the biggest downside risk to the U.S. economy, while tighter immigration enforcement was also seen limiting growth potential. Inflation is forecast to end 2025 at 2.9% before declining modestly to 2.6% next year, with tariffs contributing substantially to price pressures. Productivity gains, meanwhile, were highlighted as the most likely factor that could push growth above expectations.

Labour market expansion is expected to remain historically modest, with employers adding around 64,000 jobs per month—below recent norms but slightly stronger than late-2025 levels. The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026 and remain steady throughout the year. With inflation still elevated and only a mild rise in unemployment, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by a quarter-point in December, followed by a further half-point reduction in 2026 as policy approaches a neutral stance.

Pic Courtesy: google/ images are subject to copyright