U.S. Job Growth Likely Rebounded in November Despite Weak Hiring Trend

U.S. job growth likely picked up in November after an expected decline in October, though economists say the labor market continues to show signs of gradual weakening. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the delayed November employment report on Tuesday, along with a partial October update, after a prolonged government shutdown disrupted data collection. Economists caution that the figures may be difficult to interpret but believe hiring has remained at “stall speed,” with employers hesitant to expand payrolls amid economic uncertainty and the impact of President Donald Trump’s import tariffs on consumer spending.

A Reuters survey forecasts nonfarm payrolls rose by about 50,000 jobs in November, while October is widely expected to show job losses, driven largely by more than 150,000 federal workers who exited government payrolls under deferred buyout programs. Job gains are expected to remain concentrated in healthcare, social assistance, and leisure and hospitality, while sectors such as manufacturing, retail, transportation, and professional services likely shed jobs. Economists note that businesses have largely paused hiring rather than resorting to widespread layoffs.

Signs of labor market softness have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates. The central bank recently cut rates by 25 basis points to a 3.5%–3.75% range but signaled no further immediate reductions. The unemployment rate is forecast at 4.4% for November, with risks tilted higher, while wage growth is seen slowing to 3.6% year-on-year. Economists warn that easing wage pressures may help curb inflation but could also weigh on consumer spending, especially among lower- and middle-income households.

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