Venezuela Bonds Surge After Maduro’s Capture Sparks Restructuring Hopes

Venezuela’s default-hit government bonds rallied sharply on Monday after the unexpected capture and transfer of President Nicolás Maduro to the United States fueled expectations of a sweeping sovereign debt restructuring. Maduro was detained during a military raid in Caracas on Saturday and flown to the U.S., a development that investors believe could accelerate negotiations over what is likely to become one of the largest and most complex restructuring efforts ever undertaken.

Bonds issued by both the Venezuelan government and state oil giant Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) rose as much as 8 cents on the dollar — roughly 20% — during early European trading, with analysts anticipating further gains. JPMorgan said in a client note that Venezuelan and PDVSA bonds, which have nearly doubled in price over the course of 2025, could still see an additional bounce of up to 10 points following Monday’s developments. Tradeweb data showed Venezuela’s 2031 bond nearing 40 cents on the dollar, while most other sovereign bonds traded between 35 and 38 cents, and PDVSA debt climbed to nearly 30 cents.

The surge comes despite Venezuela having been in default since 2017 on about $60 billion in sovereign and PDVSA bonds, with total external obligations — including bilateral loans, arbitration awards, and other liabilities — estimated between $150 billion and $170 billion. Investors are now weighing the prospects of a political transition and renewed creditor talks against the backdrop of ongoing economic strains and limited oil storage capacity amid U.S. sanctions on the country’s energy sector.

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