Uber’s Profit Forecast Falls Short as Driver Shortages and Rising Costs Weigh on Growth

Uber has forecast fourth-quarter adjusted earnings below Wall Street expectations, as driver shortages, rising fuel prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict weigh on its ride-hailing business across markets including India, Brazil and Canada. The company expects adjusted earnings of 95 to 99 cents per share, below analysts’ estimates of $1.06. Its shares fell nearly 2% in premarket trading following the announcement. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said elevated fuel prices and tighter driver availability had affected supply growth in several international markets, while tighter immigration flows had contributed to a driver shortage in Canada.

To address the challenges, Uber is increasing spending on driver recruitment, retention and reactivation. The company said mobility trends improved in October, although the Middle East conflict is expected to reduce fourth-quarter Mobility bookings growth by 100 basis points. Uber projected gross bookings of $63.25 billion to $65.25 billion, compared with analysts’ expectations of $64.42 billion. Its forecast for adjusted core profit also came in slightly below market estimates. Third-quarter revenue rose 10% year-on-year to $14.77 billion, marginally exceeding expectations, while delivery bookings increased 22% and freight bookings surged 35%.

Meanwhile, Uber continues to expand its investments in autonomous mobility, expecting around 700 fully driverless vehicles on its platform by the end of 2026 and more than 2,000 by the end of 2027. The company plans to concentrate its capital on a smaller group of autonomous vehicle partners. It has also agreed to acquire catering marketplace ezCater and indicated that further acquisitions are likely to remain minimal through at least 2027 as it manages spending across its growth initiatives.

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